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One thing i would add though. In winter, if the wind is in the East, don't venture out. FOr some reason a cold east wind in the winter really kills the fishing in my experience. be interested to see if anyone else has noticed this to the same extent
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BB, I would say the issue is the cold, and in winter an east or north east wind is invariably a very cold one.
If the air temperature is not likely to exceed the water temperature throughout a given day, I would now not venture out stillwater fly fishing (Grayling on rivers are a different matter...). The Southern waters you and I would likely visit will probably be spring or river fed, so the base winter water temperature will be between 5 and 7 degrees C.
By contrast, if it's a cold morning with ice in the margins but the day subsequently warms up quite nicely - winter days with little breeze are often like that - it can offer good fishing.
I have also found on winter days that there is a quite dramatic switching on of the fish around 09:30am or a bit earlier, and an equally dramatic switch off around 14:30 or 15:00. This has happened to me enough times on enough different Southern waters to almost say it's a given.
Be interested to see if Morayflyfisher has any different insight, as his fishery is in the North of Scotland...